The latest podcast from The
Committee on Conscience with John Prendergast [In addition to Uganda, they also discuss the DRC, Darfur, and the CAP/ICG's new Enough Initiative]
JERRY FOWLER: Tell me about your trip. You went to Northern Uganda and the Democratic Republic of Congo. First, Northern Uganda; where do things stand there in terms of resolving the conflict between the government and the Lord’s Resistance Army?
JOHN PRENDERGAST: It has been twenty years now that this thing has raged on, and we have yet to see a really effective peace process develop in those two decades. The process that has unfolded over the last six months, based in Juba, in Southern Sudan is on the brink of collapse over the issue of venue, as the sort of approximate cause for the collapse.
JERRY FOWLER: Venue of where they are going to do the negotiations?
JOHN PRENDERGAST: Yes.
JERRY FOWLER: Isn’t that sort of like collapsing over the size of the table? Or the shape of the table?
JOHN PRENDERGAST: It is one step above the size of the table, but the rebels—the Lord’s Resistance Army—of course, has very significant reasons that they are presenting as to why they want to get out of Juba, and the government of Uganda is saying no and that they will not go any other place but Juba, so they are at loggerheads there. The Lord’s Resistance Army, their indications, radio intercepts, and other things, that the Lord’s Resistance Army is getting ready to go back to war, so we are at one of those moments where it is very possible that they will start launching attacks again and the ceasefire—the one success that the Juba process has brought is a cessation of hostilities agreement that expires on February 28th, so that is going to be the big day. Who knows whether they will be able to hobble together an extension of that cessation of hostilities or whether the rebels will plunge the region back to war.
JERRY FOWLER: What is the main issue that the rebels have? It seemed like several months ago, things appeared very close to coming to some type of agreement.
JOHN PRENDERGAST: Appearances were very deceiving. I think the process that Juba has unleashed is one that contains the seeds of its own demise. It has a delegation representing the Lord’s Resistance Army rebel group that is largely composed of elements of the Diaspora of Northern Ugandans and people who do not really have any connection to the Lord’s Resistance Army and the military guys in the field. They are putting forth all manner of issues, loading down the agenda with things that the Lord’s Resistance Army as an entity never fought for, and it does not represent the people of Northern Uganda on it. It has created an impossible scenario, and the government of Uganda says, “No, we are not going to negotiate on any of that stuff. We just want a pure deal directly with Kony.” They are not the right people representing the Lord’s Resistance Army, and the issues are not the right issues to try to attend the immediate threat that is posed by the Lord’s Resistance Army. I think the venue is basically what created a crisis in the talks that leads to an examination of much deeper problems that if not fixed with fairly dramatic new inputs will ensure that this thing slowly, surely deteriorates and disappears as yet another failed, half-hearted initiative to try to resolve this war.
JERRY FOWLER: The International Criminal Court, based in The Hague, issued arrest warrants quite some time ago for Joseph Kony and other top leaders of the Lord’s Resistance Army. Has that had any affect on the dynamics?
JOHN PRENDERGAST: I think it pushed and shoved the Lord’s Resistance Army to this process, this Juba process. It is not the Lord’s Resistance Army’s fault that a lot of things have gone wrong in Uganda. It is not the Lord’s Resistance Army’s fault, really, that the process itself is so deeply flawed. I think that the International Criminal Court indictments certainly brought the Lord’s Resistance Army to the table. That leverage has not since been utilized effectively to get them to the next step of, or at least going down the path of, getting a deal that has a legitimate possibility of being signed and implemented. It is very tantalizing and very frustrating because there are not very difficult issues at stake here. Joseph Kony, the leader of the Lord’s Resistance Army, has been quite clear in the meetings he has had privately about what needs to be on the table regarding his personal security and the security of the other guys that were indicted by the International Criminal Court and the livelihoods and opportunities in case these guys all come out of the bush for where they go after rebellion. If a credible mediator was shuttling back and forth between Kony and Museveni, I think we could get a deal pretty quickly, but instead we have gone this diversionary route, through Juba, loaded down by these crazy agenda items and a delegation that simply does not represent the Lord’s Resistance Army. It is highly unlikely that anything positive will come out of this unless it is dramatically altered.
JERRY FOWLER: Is Joseph Kony even someone who can be negotiated with? He has been fighting for twenty years, and in some ways it is open to question whether the Lord’s Resistance Army actually even has a political agenda. Isn’t the movement kind of based on his idea that he is going to institute law based on the Ten Commandments?
JOHN PRENDERGAST: It is true; we have all kinds of evidence from people who have spent a lot of time with him who are all very divided. Some people think he is schizophrenic, messianic, and others say the guy just puts on a big act to scare people, and he has a very keen sense of his rational options, and that if he were presented with a set of options that either go through Door A, which provides you sanctuary and an end to this whole thing, or B, face united international community, increased military threats, etc., etc., that he would take the rational choice and go through Door A, but he has never been presented with that in a systematic way. I think that we do not really know frankly; the guy’s record is very uneven and spotty, and we do not know much about ultimately, his psychological profile and whether he is stable enough and whether his core interests could be appealed to, survival interests could be appealed to, through a very well thought through peace deal proposal that deals with his central issues: his personal security and livelihood guarantees.
Labels: Darfur, Democratic Republic of Congo, Lord's Resistance Army, Uganda